Phillies and wins ring a bell?

 

Last year could be described as anything but acceptable for the 2012 Phillies. Nagging injuries, inconsistency in the line up and failed production left this team at an even .500 (81-81) record which isn't much of an accomplishment for a team that held baseball's 2nd highest payroll behind the evil empire (estimated $173.4 million) in 2012.  However, 2013 brings about change, new beliefs and jobs potentially being on the line as members like Charlie Manuel, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Carlos Ruiz and Michael Young will be free agents following this up coming season.  2012 was an eventful season, but will 2013 be more favorable towards the Phillies? Lets find out!

Upon looking towards the start of the new season lets consider a couple of things:

 

• Age - going into spring training, the phillies have 13 players that are age 30 + and 9 are 33 + (all 13 presumably will make the 25 man roster), so playing 140 games + for this group might be challenging.
• Health - injuries hurt the phillies right from the start, they entered 2012 with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and arguably Roy Halladay on the DL.  Chase hasn't played a full season since 2009 and since father time usually isn't very kind to players who play the game like Utley, staying on the field could be something difficult for one of the games best 2nd basemans.
• Stability - Every game featured a different line up for the Phillies, wether it was the Hector Luna's to the Mike Fontenot's to the Kevin Frandsen's to the Ty Wiggintons of the world the Phillies never really had a solid and consistent line up until the return of Utley and Howard.
• Additions - the addition of Mike Adams is bigger than people take it for, in 2012 the Phillies blew 13 leads in the 8th inning, this rebuilt bullpen along with bringing back durbin and the continued growth of young guys like Bastardo, Horst, Amount and Schwimer could make a big difference if all goes according to plan. (then again any bullpen that gets rid of Chad Qualls is considered "greatly improved")
• The Division - the division doesn't really scare me to bad, I do think the Nationals are legit and probably will win the East but lets examine the other 3 teams. The Phillies and braves always end up in close games so if they can finish 9-9 vs them I'll take it as a win, the Mets in another year or 2 could contend with the Nats for the east but for now there still a W.I.P. (work in progress) and the Marlins main goal this past offseason was to just hand teams this year W's so there 10-8 record vs. the Fish last year I inspect to greatly improve.
• The fountain of Youth - I understand the Phillies don't have the Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar and Dylan Bundy's of the world, but the future doesn't look as bad as people believe it to be. In September the Phillies got to see some young star talent at work, the bullpen of Jeremy Horst, Phillipe Amount, Justin DeFratus didn't perform all that bad and showed some promise, and with still more talent on the way (Tommy Joseph, Jesse Biddle and Cody Asche) could step in at any time and take you by storm.

With all of this in mind lets also consider the Phillies 2nd half season.  The Phillies went 36-24 in the final 2 months of the season, and 44-31 after the all-star break.  With a healthy Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and continued all-star performance from Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Carlos Ruiz the phillies could and can carry that 2nd half performance into this up coming season. 

My prediction for the Phillies and the NL east :

1. Washington Nationals 96-66
2. Atlanta Braves 93-69
3. Philadelphia Phillies 89-73
4. New York Mets 78-84
5. Miami Marlins 60-102

Why the Phillies getting Young-er hurts team

Coming into the offseason the Phillies needed to address 2 things: get younger and obtain outfield help, but combining the two into one player really isn't what I expected from them. I'd like to take the time to introduce to you the new Philadelphia Phillies starting right fielder Delmon Young, yes I do believe Domonic Brown just died a little inside.  It's not that I think the contract was bad, or the idea to upgrade in the outfield department was catastrophic, but really? Delmon Young? thats the best we could do?  Now granted a 1 year, $750,000 contract isn't all what it use to be, but does this signing really improve the ball club? There weren't better options?

Let's examine the pro's and con's of the signing.  Pro's: he is some what still "in his prime", he can hit, has 20 home run power and is a run driving machine.  Con's: (notice I didn't say run "scoring" machine) he can't run, play defense or take a walk, and there's no DH in the NL.  In 2012, a year where if we look at the "big 3" offensive stats for Delmon (avg .267 18 hr 74 rbi.) than yes giving a man based on those numbers that kind of contract seems like a bargain, especially when he is going into his age 27 season.  However, lets dig deeper and play Bill James/Brian Kenny and use some advanced statistical annalysis for a moment.  His OBP. (on base percentage) is a joke (.317 for his career and .296 in 2012), WAR (wins above replacement) -1.2 in 2012 .6 for his career is laughable to be kind, his -3.1 WAA only means he's worse than average, and his -29 RAA only makes him a liabelity. Also lets not forget that he may or may not miss opening day due to ankle surgery.

Another thing to add, when one of your "incentivies" in your contract includes maintaining/watching your weight, than you might wanna look else where for some defensive help, not that his growing collection of "chins" isn't a pretty sight, but I believe we would all benefit if Delmon got into better shape.  Now those advanced thingies I talked about, in 2012 Delmon drew a combine total of...wait for it...20 walks, no this is not a typo, 20 walks in 574 AB, not exactly one of the more patient hitters in baseball, his strike outs to walk ratio is roughly 5.5:1 for his career, also because Delmon isn't really any sort of speed threat, he has just a tad problem with those dreaded double play balls, 20 of them to be exact. 

I personally have nothing against Young, but the Phillies unwillingness to give Domonic Brown a shot to win the RF job is borderline comical at this point.  I mean think about it, Brown can run, throw, play defense, hit for reasonable power and gets on base alot, (.373 career OBP. in MILB) so why not pull a Ben Fransico on Brown, give him the job for 1/2 a season, if he can't do the job bring in someone else. (Pence in 2011)  The phillies basically went out of there way to make that hole in RF for them 10 times bigger and more likely to land on sportcenters "Not Top 10 Plays."  There has to be some mysterical reasons on why it took until the 2nd to last week in January for a 27 year old who just won the ALCS MVP award, to sign that kind of contract, the Phillies will just have to pray for nothing to get hit to right field in 2013.