Monday, January 28, 2013

Why the Phillies getting Young-er hurts team

Coming into the offseason the Phillies needed to address 2 things: get younger and obtain outfield help, but combining the two into one player really isn't what I expected from them. I'd like to take the time to introduce to you the new Philadelphia Phillies starting right fielder Delmon Young, yes I do believe Domonic Brown just died a little inside.  It's not that I think the contract was bad, or the idea to upgrade in the outfield department was catastrophic, but really? Delmon Young? thats the best we could do?  Now granted a 1 year, $750,000 contract isn't all what it use to be, but does this signing really improve the ball club? There weren't better options?

Let's examine the pro's and con's of the signing.  Pro's: he is some what still "in his prime", he can hit, has 20 home run power and is a run driving machine.  Con's: (notice I didn't say run "scoring" machine) he can't run, play defense or take a walk, and there's no DH in the NL.  In 2012, a year where if we look at the "big 3" offensive stats for Delmon (avg .267 18 hr 74 rbi.) than yes giving a man based on those numbers that kind of contract seems like a bargain, especially when he is going into his age 27 season.  However, lets dig deeper and play Bill James/Brian Kenny and use some advanced statistical annalysis for a moment.  His OBP. (on base percentage) is a joke (.317 for his career and .296 in 2012), WAR (wins above replacement) -1.2 in 2012 .6 for his career is laughable to be kind, his -3.1 WAA only means he's worse than average, and his -29 RAA only makes him a liabelity. Also lets not forget that he may or may not miss opening day due to ankle surgery.

Another thing to add, when one of your "incentivies" in your contract includes maintaining/watching your weight, than you might wanna look else where for some defensive help, not that his growing collection of "chins" isn't a pretty sight, but I believe we would all benefit if Delmon got into better shape.  Now those advanced thingies I talked about, in 2012 Delmon drew a combine total of...wait for it...20 walks, no this is not a typo, 20 walks in 574 AB, not exactly one of the more patient hitters in baseball, his strike outs to walk ratio is roughly 5.5:1 for his career, also because Delmon isn't really any sort of speed threat, he has just a tad problem with those dreaded double play balls, 20 of them to be exact. 

I personally have nothing against Young, but the Phillies unwillingness to give Domonic Brown a shot to win the RF job is borderline comical at this point.  I mean think about it, Brown can run, throw, play defense, hit for reasonable power and gets on base alot, (.373 career OBP. in MILB) so why not pull a Ben Fransico on Brown, give him the job for 1/2 a season, if he can't do the job bring in someone else. (Pence in 2011)  The phillies basically went out of there way to make that hole in RF for them 10 times bigger and more likely to land on sportcenters "Not Top 10 Plays."  There has to be some mysterical reasons on why it took until the 2nd to last week in January for a 27 year old who just won the ALCS MVP award, to sign that kind of contract, the Phillies will just have to pray for nothing to get hit to right field in 2013.

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